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With
amazing consistency, every time analysts come up with a figure, the Indian economy gleefully slaps them with a higher growth rate, resembling an Indian cricketer with his hands on his head after hitting a sixer, and that too on a no ball. The 9.3% growth for the quarter ending June 2007 was another forecast beating the much-hyped estimated growth rate. Well, the macro issue here is not the credibily of analyst forecasts and definitely not the fielding efforts of our cricket team, but the fact that despite the gung-ho performance of the economy, this growth is nevertheless a moderation in economic activity (when compared to last year’s growth). Analysts have already begun scripting the tale of a feebler overall growth rate for FY08 as compared to FY07’s amazing 9.6% growth tally.First of all, the monetary policy decisions taken by the central bank are yet to have their full impact on the economy because of the time lag that exists between policy decisions and their impact on the economy. As Sunil K Sinha, Head & Senior Economist, CRISIL Ltd., reveals to 4Ps B&M, “The first quarter number seems to suggest no impact of monetary tightening measures on growth. I believe this may be due to the time lag between the monetary policy decisions and their impact on the economy. The subsequent quarters in my view will witness the impact of monetary tightening on growth.”
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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative
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