The Current Surge in Global crude Oil Prices puts forth two basic Questions – what are The Underlying causes and what’s The Worst we can expect. While The Most Pessimistic Projections may prove untrue, The World is Indeed staring in The Face of another crude shock that could derail Global Recovery
Be it the oil shock of the 1970s or the impending oil crisis of 2011; the spike in oil prices in both cases has been the consequence of a combustible mix of geology and geopolitics; with the latter inflicting much more of the damage. The turmoil in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya and the consequent fears of disruption of Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline have led to oil prices breaching the $100 per barrel mark (on February 24, 2011 it touched $120 per barrel, well short of the July 2008 peak of $147 per barrel). The continued political upheaval in Libya, which produces approximately 1.6 million barrels per day and accounts for close to 2% of global oil output, will further escalate prices and dampen the fragile global economic recovery.
As the ‘Day of Rage’ rules the roost throughout the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, oil-supply side vulnerabilities can only increase. It is to be noted that the MENA region is home to about 60% of global crude oil and 45% of the world’s natural gas reserves. Given such dynamic statistics, any disruption in the supply of resources from this region will tantamount to a significant price rise. Though Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members are bent on meeting the challenges, fear of underinvestment in the MENA region will undoubtedly push oil prices northwards.
Amidst this scenario, research houses are forecasting that oil prices could well surge to $220 per barrel (as suggested by Tokyo-based Nomura Holdings). With the bitter aftertaste of the economic crisis still lingering across the globe, the forecasts of spiralling crude oil prices is an indication that we could be in for a reversal of the global economic recovery, as if it wasn’t sluggish enough already.
Even if one assumes that the current spike is merely a result of speculation and that the dust would soon settle down; the potential loss is huge. As per estimates, the British economy would have to wipe out £45 billion in the next two years if oil prices surge to $160 per barrel this year. The economic recovery in the US too could be hurt; it is estimated that every $1 surge in oil prices would cost the consumers $1 billion over the course of a year. The entire episode of unrest has seen the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and other crude oil spot price increase by about $15 per barrel since mid-February. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its latest outlook (Short -Term Energy Outlook, published on March 8, 2011), has raised its forecasts for the average cost of crude oil to refiners to $105 per barrel in 2011, $14 higher than its previous outlook. However, EIA has raised its 2011 forecast for WTI by only $9 per barrel to $102 per barrel, because of the projected continued price discount for this type of crude. EIA has further projected a small increase in crude oil prices in 2012, with refiner acquisition cost for crude oil averaging $106 per barrel and WTI averaging $105 per barrel.
At best these projections are but optimistic in nature. BMO Capital Markets further goes on to suggest that given the lag and the cumulative 46% increase in WTI between 2009 and 2011, the oil price increase will reduce the US economic growth by 0.7% (a huge figure in their case). Substantially higher prices (as forecasted by Nomura) arising from a supply shock would also significantly heighten the risk of a renewed recession. The current political problem is more grave than the geopolitical problem of the 1970’s, since the problems have spread to the entire MENA region.
As the ‘Day of Rage’ rules the roost throughout the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, oil-supply side vulnerabilities can only increase. It is to be noted that the MENA region is home to about 60% of global crude oil and 45% of the world’s natural gas reserves. Given such dynamic statistics, any disruption in the supply of resources from this region will tantamount to a significant price rise. Though Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members are bent on meeting the challenges, fear of underinvestment in the MENA region will undoubtedly push oil prices northwards.
Amidst this scenario, research houses are forecasting that oil prices could well surge to $220 per barrel (as suggested by Tokyo-based Nomura Holdings). With the bitter aftertaste of the economic crisis still lingering across the globe, the forecasts of spiralling crude oil prices is an indication that we could be in for a reversal of the global economic recovery, as if it wasn’t sluggish enough already.
Even if one assumes that the current spike is merely a result of speculation and that the dust would soon settle down; the potential loss is huge. As per estimates, the British economy would have to wipe out £45 billion in the next two years if oil prices surge to $160 per barrel this year. The economic recovery in the US too could be hurt; it is estimated that every $1 surge in oil prices would cost the consumers $1 billion over the course of a year. The entire episode of unrest has seen the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and other crude oil spot price increase by about $15 per barrel since mid-February. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its latest outlook (Short -Term Energy Outlook, published on March 8, 2011), has raised its forecasts for the average cost of crude oil to refiners to $105 per barrel in 2011, $14 higher than its previous outlook. However, EIA has raised its 2011 forecast for WTI by only $9 per barrel to $102 per barrel, because of the projected continued price discount for this type of crude. EIA has further projected a small increase in crude oil prices in 2012, with refiner acquisition cost for crude oil averaging $106 per barrel and WTI averaging $105 per barrel.
At best these projections are but optimistic in nature. BMO Capital Markets further goes on to suggest that given the lag and the cumulative 46% increase in WTI between 2009 and 2011, the oil price increase will reduce the US economic growth by 0.7% (a huge figure in their case). Substantially higher prices (as forecasted by Nomura) arising from a supply shock would also significantly heighten the risk of a renewed recession. The current political problem is more grave than the geopolitical problem of the 1970’s, since the problems have spread to the entire MENA region.
Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
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An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles.
IIPM Best B School India
Management Guru Arindam Chaudhuri
Rajita Chaudhuri-The New Age Woman
IIPM's Management Consulting Arm-Planman Consulting
