Saturday, July 28, 2012

Let There be Synergies

India’s it Story so far was that of a few big players and a number of smaller ones. Now it’s time that some M&As Balance this Anomaly out

It has long been said that the Indian IT/ITeS and BPO sector is quite prone to M&A activity. For the IT/ITeS sector, the reason is that it has traditionally been akin to a comet with a small head and a long tail. Apart from the top few companies that steadily moved up the value chain and also build differentiated vertical expertise particularly in BFSI, a large part of the sector has traditionally thrived on pricing. That advantage has steadily eroded with other software destinations like Vietnam, China, et al coming into the picture; and this nightmare is particularly real for the BPO sector. In fact, they are also competing with home countries. This year, UK-based firms Aviva, BT, Santander and New Call Telecom decided to move their centres back to the home country citing rising joblessness there, the need for an onsite model and also the rising costs in India. Moreover, with the issue on visas wherein US lawmakers have passed norms restricting H1B visas to Indian companies and also hiked visa fees by around $2000, the cost of doing business with the main market – the US is steadily going up. In the subsequent negotiations over handling this row, US is looking for more Indian companies to hire overseas, and this is another trend that could significantly alter the cost model. There are further problems for them back home, as the STPI tax benefit was not renewed this year. For smaller IT players, margins are typically at around 15% and they may find it hard to survive.

Finally, the uncertainty in the global environment persists, and is particularly riskier for IT companies that are heavily dependent on exports. Some impact has already been seen on larger firms as the Q1 results indicate. Infosys Technologies saw net revenues of Rs.74.85 billion in the first quarter, a growth of 3.2% qoq while EBITDA declined by 6.4% qoq to touch Rs.21.76 billion. The guidance for the second quarter USD revenue growth has analysts somewhat concerned as it is just 3.5-5%; considering that the quarter is normally the strongest for the company. Wipro reported a drop in Q1 net profit by 2.9% qoq to record Rs.13.35 billion and revenues jumped by 3% qoq to Rs.85.64 billion. While Infosys has talked about the risk of reduced client spending, TCS (even though its results were better) and Wipro have admitted that they are facing an uncertain environment apart from currency fluctuations. Smaller players could be under serious distress in the coming months as a global slowdown begins to take shape.


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